Analysis of the Bullish White Swan harmonic pattern on EUR/USD 4-hour chart on 2024-09-15. If the harmonic pattern is complete, the initial and final targets are around 1.126 and 1.153 in the short term; and 1.132 and 1.167 in the long term.
LONG-TERM ANALYSIS: X-D EXTENSION
- Point X: The X point begins at the most significant low before the pattern forms, which is around 1.066 on the chart.
- Point D: Point D is where the pattern supposedly completes, located at 1.100.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels for X-D
Based on prices X = 1.066 and D = 1.100, we can draw Fibonacci retracement from X to D to identify potential reversal targets:
- 38.2% of X-D: This level is at 1.100, being the first support where the price might find retracement if there is a correction after the upward move.
- 61.8% of X-D: The next significant support level is at 1.087, where we could expect a deeper retracement if the price corrects further.
- 100% of X-D: The price level at 1.066 represents the full retracement of X-D.
Fibonacci Projection Levels for X-D
For longer-term targets, we apply Fibonacci projections:
- 0.618 of X-D: This is the first significant extension target, located at 1.132.
- 1.0 of X-D: A full extension target, projected at 1.152.
- 1.272 of X-D: A more ambitious target for the upward move is at 1.167.
SHORT-TERM ANALYSIS: B-D EXTENSION
The B-D leg considers a shorter move, from the intermediate correction (point B) to point D, ideal for traders looking for quicker moves.
- Point B: This point occurs around 1.077, as shown on the chart.
- Point D: As previously discussed, the final point of the pattern is at 1.100.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels for B-D
- 38.2% of B-D: Level around 1.104, which can be considered a first short-term resistance.
- 61.8% of B-D: A stronger resistance level at 1.1094, indicating a deeper retracement.
Fibonacci Projection Levels for B-D
Fibonacci projection levels for the B-D extension define short-term targets:
- 0.618 of B-D: First target at 1.126, near point C, marked as significant resistance.
- 1.0 of B-D: Second target at 1.142, an ambitious goal for traders following the short move.
- 1.272 of B-D: A higher target can be found at 1.153.
TRADING STRATEGY: STOP LOSS AND TARGETS
Entry
The ideal entry point was at point D (1.100), marking the end of the pattern and potential bullish reversal. Since the price has moved past this point, you may seek confirmations of a bullish trend, such as a breakout above resistance, for new entries.
Stop Loss
- For long-term (X-D), place the stop loss below point D, ideally around 1.096, which is a nearby support level and offers protection against false breakouts.
- For short-term (B-D), the stop loss can be set below 1.098 if the price starts losing momentum in the short term.
Take Profit Targets
Based on Fibonacci retracement and projection levels, targets can be set as follows:
- First Target (short-term): At 1.116, 38.2% level of B-D.
- Second Target (short-term): At 1.126, 61.8% level of B-D.
- First Target (long-term): At 1.132, 0.618 level of X-D, where the price may face significant resistance.
- Second Target (long-term): At 1.153, 1.0 extension of X-D, near a key high.
- Final Long-Term Target: At 1.167, representing the 1.272 extension of X-D, a goal for a broader upward move.
CONCLUSION
- Long-Term (X-D): Fibonacci retracement support is at 1.096, while targets are projected between 1.116 and 1.132.
- Short-Term (B-D): Retracement support is at 1.104, with targets projected between 1.116 and 1.126.
- Stop Loss: Depending on the trading horizon, place it between 1.0962 and 1.0980.
